Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump campaigned in Pennsylvania in the days leading to Tuesday’s primary elections — a reflection of the prominent role the state is expected to play in November and a move that traditionally has helped boost down-ballot candidates in key battleground states.
But analysts say the key to winning Pennsylvania’s high-stakes Senate contest may be in the candidates’ ability to outrun the downward pull of a presidential race led by two deeply unpopular figures.
“It’s a pretty heavy gravity that’s pulling you down,” said Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion in Allentown. Borick said the race will largely be defined by how the two Senate candidates navigate the political headwinds created by the presidential race.
“A lot of your fate is tied to whatever is number one on that ticket,” he said.
Although there was little drama in Tuesday’s primary election — neither of the Senate or presidential candidates faced a challenger — the results officially set the stage for a critical faceoff between incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Bob Casey Jr. and Republican challenger David McCormick that will help determine control of the U.S. Senate.
The dynamics of the race, which is expected to be one of the most expensive and closely watched in the country, are also deeply intertwined with the race for president as Pennsylvania once again stands poised to decide who occupies the White House.
More:President Biden rips 'Mar-a-Lago values' on trail in Pennsylvania with Trump in court
“It's going to be a competitive one,” said Jessica Taylor, Senate editor and analyst for Cook Political Report. “But the good news for Democrats is that of the (Senate) swing states that also overlap with the presidential race, this is where Biden is polling the best. But it's going to be such an expensive race that Democrats absolutely cannot take it for granted.”
Cook Political Report rates the Senate race as “leaning” in favor of Democrats. But it says the presidential contest is closer, calling it one of only six true toss-up races in the country.
The ratings reflect the conventional wisdom that Casey is better positioned than Biden to do well in Pennsylvania.
That’s a belief also borne out by political polling conducted in recent months showing Casey consistently leading McCormick by anywhere from 5 to 17 percentage points, but with murkier showings for Biden.
Some polling shows Trump ahead by as much as 4 percentage points and others show Biden leading by as much as 10 percentage points. A Real Clear Politics rolling average of presidential polling in Pennsylvania puts Biden at 46.5% with Trump at 46%.
But even with Casey currently running ahead of Biden, Taylor said presidential politics is a strong predictor of how down-ballot candidates perform.
She noted that in 2016, every state that voted for a Republican for president also voted for the Republican Senate candidate, a trend that also held true for Democrats.
More:The dynamics of the brewing tug-of-war with David McCormick over Bob Casey's Senate seat
In 2020, Maine was the only state where voters selected candidates of different parties for U.S. Senate and president when it picked Republican Susan Collins for Senate and Biden for president.
“What we're seeing across the board is that in almost every state, Senate Democrats are outrunning Biden, and that's the case (in Pennsylvania) from what I've seen so far,” Taylor said. “But we see the presidential race so closely aligned with Senate races, that I still think that's one of the best predictors we have, at least as of now.”
Can Bob Casey Jr. persuade enough people to split their tickets in Pennsylvania Senate race?
Casey is well known in Pennsylvania politics with deep roots in the state. The son of a two-term governor, he served as state auditor and treasurer before being elected to the U.S. Senate in 2006 and is now seeking a fourth term.
A close ally of Biden’s — the pair are both from Scranton — Casey has supported the president’s top priorities in Congress while maintaining a moderate approach to policy.
“Nobody looks at Bob Casey and, you know, thinks that he is going bowling with AOC,” said J.J. Balaban, a Democratic strategist and political ad maker, referencing firebrand progressive U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez.
Casey’s is a must-hold seat for Democrats who currently control the chamber by a slim 51-to-49 majority and have no room for error while navigating a tricky election map.
Balaban said Casey typically has appealed more to swing voters, which could help him persuade some Trump supporters to split their tickets — an increasingly difficult task in the age of polarized politics.
“You have seen in every state in the country, the number of people willing to split their ticket has significantly decreased from what it was several decades ago,” he said. “But it's still not down to zero.”
But he said Casey’s electoral track record shows he’s able to overperform other Democrats on the ticket.
“It seems likely that he will do that again,” Balaban said. “The question is, to what extent.”
According to a March Wall Street Journal poll, Biden is viewed favorably by 36% of registered voters in Pennsylvania and unfavorably by far more — 59%.
“I feel significantly better about Sen. Casey's reelection than about the president's reelection in the state, because he's just been on the ballot a lot and shown an ability to overperform. And, you know, that is what it will take,” Balaban said.
But that doesn’t mean he’s taking it for granted.
“I fully expect this to be a well-funded, competitive, heated campaign,” he said.
More:McCormick has loaned his campaign $2 million so far but lags Casey on campaign cash
David McCormick accepts Donald Trump’s endorsem*nt but doesn’t cling too closely
McCormick is a former hedge fund CEO who spent about $14 million of his own money in a 2022 GOP Senate primary, only to lose to Trump-endorsed celebrity surgeon Mehmet Oz.
Oz ultimately lost to Democratic Sen. John Fetterman, and many believed McCormick would have been a stronger challenger.
This year, he was able to clear the Republican field, clearing the way for him to begin attacking his opponent and building his war chest rather than running a potentially damaging primary campaign.
With his vast personal wealth and proven fundraising ability, McCormick is seen as Casey’s strongest Republican challenger yet.
Already he has worked to tie Casey to Biden, hammering him as a “rubber stamp” for the president and the ultimately political insider.
But he too will need to walk a fine line in dealing with the presidential ticket.
McCormick earned Trump’s endorsem*nt earlier this month while the former president was campaigning in Pennsylvania — both a blessing as McCormick seeks to shore up the MAGA base and possibly a curse as he works to win over suburban women and moderates that have fled Trump in recent years.
It’s a turnaround for Trump, who savaged McCormick during his 2022 primary race against Oz as “the candidate of special interests and globalists and the Washington establishment.”
McCormick was not on hand at the rally, quietly underscoring the need to both embrace Trump’s support while creating distance.
According to Politico, McCormick’s campaign has said it intends to build a wide coalition and bring in moderate and independent voters from the suburbs that Trump has typically failed to win over, while also relying on Trump to drive turnout with his base.
“If Trump doesn't perform well, it makes his path all the more difficult. That's just reality,” Borick said.
Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Des Moines Register. She is also covering the 2024 presidential race for USA TODAY as a senior national campaign correspondent. Reach her at bpfann@dmreg.com or 515-284-8244. Follow her on Twitter at @brianneDMR.
